Annual Oscar Odds Roundup

Annual Oscar Odds Roundup, thanks to notice odds on Hoffman, Witherspoon, Ang Lee and Brokeback (-450 means you have to bet that amount to receive a $100 payoff, +3000 means that you get 3000 on a $100 bet–in other words the first is like 1:5 odds and other is 30:1). Not much to pick from but I think Frances McDormand is an oscar fave and might have a chance and she’s got good odds at 20 to 1, also Keener in the same supporting category at 18 to 1. I don’t see why War of the Worlds wouldn’t win best visual effects over King Kong so I’m happy to take 30 to 1 odds there. Plus it’s a backhand way of recognizing spielberg whose munich will get shut out of the major categories. Ang Lee seems to be the lock at 1:10. I’ve never even seen odds that bad at the racetrack! The foreign language film is a hard one—south africa always has the liberal sentiment so a ham and cheese sandwhich from there could get nominated, “Paradise Now” might also be a backhand way to acknowledge the politics of Munich but in a far more minor way, but then there’s the old standby of the holocaust doc in the form of Sophie Scholl (one who died as a result of the White Rose protest to the Nazis)–the last provides provocative odds at 10 to 1 though it’s from Germany, something of a drawback. I’d say if you have a hundred to burn, split it 3 ways between Keener, War of the Worlds and Sophie Scholl. Jake Gyllenhall is also not getting bad odds at 5 to 1.

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and do you believe that William Hurt was nominated for that bad Philly accent—that’s a part Richard Conte could have done in his sleep–was he ever nominated? besides the best performance of the bad guy was Ed Harris, who was channeling Hemingway’s “The Killers” through Philly.

Philip Seymour Hoffman -725
Heath Ledger +500
Joaquin Phoenix +1200
Terrence Howard +3000
David Strathairn +4500


Reese Witherspoon -450
Felicity Huffman +325
Keira Knighley +2500
Charlize Theron +3000
Judi Dench +3000


Ang Lee -980
George Clooney +1000
Steven Spielberg +1200
Bennett Miller +1500
Paul Haggis +2500


Brokeback Mountain -725
Crash +400
Munich +2000
Good Night, And Good Luck +2500
Capote +3000


Tsotsi (South Africa) -110
Paradise Now (Palestine) +150
Joyeux Noel (France) +550
Sophie Scholl The Final Days (Germany) +1000
Dont Tell (Italy) +1500

Supporting Actress

Rachel Weisz -210
Amy Adams +325
Michelle Williams +450
Catherine Keener +1800
Frances McDormand +2000

Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti -125
George Clooney +120
Jake Gyllenhaal +550
Matt Dillon +700
William Hurt +3000

Best Visual Effects

King Kong -220
The Chronicles of Narnia +150
War of the Worlds +3000

8 thoughts on “Annual Oscar Odds Roundup”

  1. i never know: are good odds odds in which you are likely to make a lot of money or odds in which the horse/film/dog is very likely to win (so you won’t win a lot)? in other words, are good odds long odds or short (?) odds?

    in yet other words, could you clarify the lingo for non-gamblers like me and simon? (though we did go to gulfstream twice. really cheap beer and lovely animals. we sat in a surprisingly empty section and got booted out in no time flat. there were telephones in each seat!).

  2. If you had a lot of money the short odds might be good news–let’s say I could afford to bet a $1000 on Ang Lee at 1:10 odds (you make 1 for every 10 you bet) and therefore win $100–I’d have a pretty good chance to win, since he is a heavy favorite. however for people looking for some kind of value for their bet, long odds are better–for instance if I bet $20 on War of the Worlds to win in the Best Visual Effects Category, I’ll make $600 because it has 30 to 1 odds (30 bucks for every 1 you bet). But, of course, it is a longshot at such odds. I pointed out the categories where there are long odds on entries that seem to me to have nevertheless a strong chance of winning. for instance I don’t see any reason Catharine Keener wouldn’t win–so 18 to 1 odds is great for me, since I can make $360 possibly on a $20 bet.

    and gio, you and Simon must have wandered into the clubhouse or something where they usually charge you extra! they don’t let proles in there, even academic ones. Are you ready to place some bets on the Academy Awards? I think too we might have a pool for Arnab’s thing over at–i feel lucky.

  3. Help !!
    For 10+ years I’ve gotten creamed at this Oscar party where the betters ($5 entry bet) are SERIOUS film types. I desperately need input on 2 categories: (1) Cinematography, and (2) Film Editing. Anyone, anywhere have any idea what is favored in these two categories. THANK YOU for any insight you can provide!


  4. Greg, Crash will win editing. Cinematography is tougher with Brokeback Mountain getting lots of attention but a handful of folks feel like Memoirs of a Geisha‘s sumptious visuals deserves some attention. I’m thinking that film’s poor box office and critical reviews will leave it walking home with only one award (costumes) but it did get six technical nods so you never know.

  5. I believe Memoirs of a Geisha will take cinematography due to its “lushness.” It’s the kind of “quality” conventional film they love. I’ve put Munich down for editing–to recognize spielberg’s technical facility and to throw a bone to a film that won’t win any major categories.

  6. Watched a couple of the live action shorts tonight. The Runaway, a German film, is very well done but sentimental. It borrows elements from Kramer vs Kramer and The Sixth Sense. The British Cashback is clever but it feels “strictly filmschool” and I couldn’t help but feel as if the writer/director had watched “The Office” a few too many times and was inspired to take on a supermarket in a similar key. It also takes great pleasure in objectifying the bodies of naked women in ways that would anger the feminists among us. I hear The Runaway is the favorite for the Oscar but I’m still quite curious about Six Shooter. Brendan Gleeson is a much admired actor and Martin McDonough is a hot young playwright who has dazzled Broadway on a number of occasions (he may be too outre for some Academy voters). I’m going to watch that one tomorrow.

    And John, in the words of Michael Reynolds, you’re wrong. I suspect both Munich and Good Night and Good Luck will walk home empty handed tomorrow night. Though I am still pondering GNGL’s opportunity for an upset in the Art Direction category.

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